This title isn’t original to me. I recently saw a similar article asking if Google will overtake Apple in 2016 in the context of stock valuation.
My thoughts aren’t so much about the stock; more about the impact of their technology. Not their devices or Android.
Everything else that is Google.
Apple has amazing personal technology, and device technology even. They make beauthiful things that can impact your life with their ease of use.
But they don’t make “moon shots” unless the moon you are speaking of is something you can carry on your person.
Google, on the other hand, is working on more than just beautiful devices or consumer products. They work on radical shifts in what technology is capable of doing on a larger scale. They create systems that will lead to the development of yet even more technologies.
Google shoots for the moon. Apple shoots for your wrist.
Okay, that may not be completely accurate. Apple has a higher aim than mere accessorizing your wrist. They genuinely want to make a difference in their customer’s experiences with their life and their technology.
Will Google Overtake Apple in 2016?
No, not if the question is a matter of value derived from the things they compete head to head on. Android phones may be greater in number sold, but they are far far lower in the profit derived. Apple’s products are gold mines of profitability. Google’s Android, Chromebook, Chromecast make money, but more along the bronze color, not gold.
But Google does have something Apple doesn’t. A core technology of data interactions and logic that allow the company to increasingly create Intellectual Property that is itself generative past the physical.
Google’s technology isn’t widgets; it’s possibility.
Not all, certainly not Android phones or Chromebooks, but many of their technologies have the potential to be moonshots or even generate moonshots.
Why is it that this differentiation matters? Most of us think of Google as the way we search. In fact, the word itself has become a verb. But they are much more than a mere search engine (even if they derive a great horde of cash from search–incidentally, this is Apple’s biggest perceived threat from Google today and one Apple actively seeks to stymie).
In fact, Google is so much more than a search engine or a verb that they’ve recently renamed themselves. The company we refer to as Google is more properly known (and legally) as Alphabet.
It’s all the other stuff Google does, stuff we may not know about (yet), that’s why I ask the question of will Google overtake Apple in 2016.
Go Big or Go Home
Recently I read Bold: How to Go Big, Create Wealth and Impact the World after our company founder Tony Dale spoke about it.
The book is very much about impacting the world on massive scale. It’s not ponderous, but well worth pondering, and much along the lines of playing in the second half of the chessboard.
One point from Bold is that the key differentiator among companies who will make the biggest impact in the world in the coming decades will be their moon shot goals.
They focus on doing something massive. Something like what NASA accomplished in the 1960s: they reached for the moon and they succeeded.
Google is mentioned in Bold as a “moon shot” company.
Moon shot companies are liberal in their focus on innovation, but ruthless on their measurement of what genuinely will succeed. If bold projects, with massive aims, don’t succeed within a reasonable time and at massive scale, they nix it.
Apple shares some of these qualities, but IMHO aiming for your wrist isn’t a moon shot. Steve Jobs was ruthless about quality, but not necessarily about scope.
Jobs was famous for asking John Scully “Do you want to spend the rest of your life selling sugared water or do you want a chance to change the world?”. Owning your wrist, or even every screen, isn’t a moon shot.
Apple’s Intersection
Apple nailed the intersection of hardware and software. Their products are unparalleled. They are genuinely delightful and amazing to use, while being aesthetically appealing.
Android devices can be pretty, but the user experience stinks.
But Apple, once you get past the core OSes on their devices (all of which are a Unix variant of some type- iOS, MacOS, tvOS, watchOS), their technology isn’t theres.
Truthfully, I think that’s why some user experiences with their web services (iTunes store, App Store, etc.) can be so painful at times: they don’t make the code or the hardware that those services run on.
Apple doesn’t build data centers that run their code; their data centers run other people’s code (Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services possible) though that may be changing. More on this in a future post.
Why Google/Alphabet Is A Moon Shot Company
Google, or Alphabet (or whatever) is a moon shot company not because they are a search engine. There are competing search engines, and some are very good. Bing comes to mind.
No, Google is a moon shot company because they pour dollars in to developing new types of technology that have the potential to radically change how we humans interact with our world. Search engine technology was just a means to get to that larger goal (that’s how it worked if not what Page and Brin were seeking when they first started).
What are some of those technologies?
The Google car (please tell me it will have better security than Android!). Chief Competitor Now: Tesla.
Google for Work. This is a cloud based browser driven set of applications, communications and storage for businesses large and small. Chief Competitor Now: Office365 from Microsoft.
Google Space: This isn’t so much theirs as it is an investment in one of Elon Musk’s companies, namely SpaceX. Chief Competitor: Blue Origin from Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos.
Windows on Chromebook. This is done in partnership with VMWare. Effectively it turns a cheap Chromebook into a Windows computer through a virtualized Windows machine. This qualifies as a moon shot because it will bring a consistent Windows experience (the OS is hosted and maintained remotely, thus mitigating the Windows malware concerns) to a very cheap device. Chief Competitor Now: Microsoft.
Artificial Intelligence. This is one that Google is committed to and working feverishly to bring to market. Think robotics. Think automation. Think Terminator. They hired Ray Kurzweil in 2012 to lead this effort. They’re very serious about it. Chief Competitor Now: IBM (Watson)
Will Google Overtake Apple in 2016?
Perhaps. At least in stock valuation.
Not likely. In terms of profitability.
I do believe, however, that their commitment to moon shots sets the future. The question of will Google overtake Apple is pretty clear (unless Apple is cooking up something completely moon shot like in its own right).
The post Will Google Overtake Apple in 2016? appeared first on Conquer Technology. If you've enjoyed this, be sure to follow Thad on Twitter.